The most-traded contract fluctuated and closed lower overnight, with cost support remaining relatively strong. [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]

11.13 SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment

Futures: The most-traded cast aluminum alloy 2601 contract opened at 21,220 yuan/mt overnight, rose to a high of 21,350 yuan/mt at opening, then fluctuated rangebound, hitting a low of 21,145 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 21,210 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt or 0.16% from the previous close. Trading volume was 5,969, open interest was 15,374. Overall, the cast aluminum alloy 2601 contract is in a short-term bullish trend with intraday fluctuations and corrections; the technical picture is bullish but shows signs of short-term overbought conditions.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Report: According to SMM data, on November 12, the SMM ADC12 spot price theoretically traded at a premium of 355 yuan/mt to the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract (AD2601) at 10:15.

Warrant Report: SHFE data showed that on November 12, the total registered warrant volume for cast aluminum alloy was 57,500 mt, down 30 mt from the previous trading day. By region: Shanghai's total registered volume was 4,757 mt, unchanged; Guangdong's total registered volume was 18,002 mt, down 30 mt; Jiangsu's total registered volume was 10,548 mt, unchanged; Zhejiang's total registered volume was 19,179 mt, unchanged; Chongqing's total registered volume was 5,014 mt, unchanged; Sichuan's total registered volume was 0 mt, unchanged.

Aluminum scrap: On Wednesday, spot primary aluminum prices edged up from the previous trading day, with the SMM A00 spot price closing at 21,670 yuan/mt. Aluminum scrap market prices followed aluminum prices higher with slight increases. Baled UBC was quoted at 16,450-16,950 yuan/mt (ex-tax), shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) was quoted at 17,900-18,550 yuan/mt (ex-tax). As spot aluminum prices rose on Wednesday, aluminum scrap prices in Hunan, Anhui, Hubei, and Jiangxi increased by 100-200 yuan/mt, while prices in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Tianjin remained stable or increased by 25-50 yuan/mt. Price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum scrap: The price difference between A00 aluminum and mechanical casting aluminum scrap in Shanghai widened by 50 yuan to 2,932 yuan/mt WoW; the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan widened by 40 yuan to 2,449 yuan/mt WoW. The aluminum scrap market is expected to hold up well this week, continuing the complex tug-of-war between sellers and buyers.

Silicon metal: On November 12, SMM non-oxygen blown #553 silicon metal in east China was at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt; oxygen-blown #553 at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt; #521 at 9,600-9,700 yuan/mt; #441 at 9,600-9,800 yuan/mt; #421 at 9,700-9,800 yuan/mt; #421 for silicone use at 9,800-10,200 yuan/mt; #3303 at 10,400-10,600 yuan/mt. Prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Northwest China, Sichuan, Shanghai, and Xinjiang remained stable.

Overseas market: Overseas ADC12 offers were at $2,590-2,620/mt, while domestic spot prices held steady at 20,700-20,900 yuan/mt. The immediate import loss widened to above 300 yuan/mt. Local ADC12 offers in Thailand, excluding tax, were at 84-85 baht/kg.

Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the combined daily social inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 49,953 mt on November 12, up 224 mt from the previous trading day and up 59 mt from the previous Wednesday (November 5).

Summary: Aluminum prices extended slight gains on Wednesday, while ADC12 prices remained flat at 21,500 yuan/mt. Currently, the tight supply of aluminum scrap persists, coupled with auxiliary materials such as copper prices fluctuating at highs, providing strong support on the cost side. ADC12 prices still have upward momentum in the short term. Although end-use consumption resilience provides a floor on the demand side, aluminum prices are at high levels, leading to cautious purchasing by downstream users. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well.

[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not intended as decision-making advice.]